A sober analysis of Trump 2.0's first year in office
The US president's daring policy can point to a number of successes, even if it carries many risks in the long run, argues guest author Néckel Polfer.
Even by Donald Trump's own standards, 2025 was a dizzying year, and 2026 is starting off with the next bombshell. From day one, his administration has been trying to push through a national-conservative agenda using aggressive means.
The goal of this policy is to tackle a range of identified problems, such as illegal immigration, illegal drug imports, DEI (diversity, equity, inclusion) policies, a bloated bureaucracy, enormous trade and budget deficits, the Green Deal, free-riding NATO allies, de-industrialization, and dependence on China, among others.
Given this long list and the extortionate methods of the Trump administration, it seems as though Trump has effectively declared war on the entire world at once. For many political observers, it therefore also seemed impossible that he could succeed with this seemingly chaotic strategy. In hindsight, however, one has to admit that a number of breakthroughs have been achieved, even if the long-term consequences of this strategy are still hard to assess.
Trump's successes
Through the immigration agency ICE's tough crackdown, the flow of illegal immigration into the USA has come to a standstill. As a reminder, an estimated ten million immigrants entered the country illegally during the Biden administration, which was a major factor in Trump's election victory. The speed of this change has surprised many, and was achieved even without building a wall along the border with Mexico.
In energy policy, the Trump administration is consistently continuing to expand fossil energy. The fracking boom has already catapulted the USA to become the world's largest producer of fossil energy over the past 15 years. A third of the USA's land area is public land, and has so far been off-limits to oil or gas projects. That is now set to change, which could further expand America's dominant position. In addition, it is expected that raw materials and cheap energy will further drive growth in industry and in data centers for artificial intelligence.
The threatened trade tariffs have led to trade agreements that favor America. Allied states in particular (Britain, South Korea, Japan, Europe) have made concessions, such as asymmetric tariffs (higher import tariffs into the USA than the reverse), commitments to purchase American liquefied gas, and commitments to invest in the USA. Trump has deliberately exploited these countries' export dependence on the American market in order to force concessions.
Europe's NATO allies have committed to a drastic increase in their military spending. In the face of fear of the Russian threat, Trump has threatened to withdraw American security guarantees in order to pressure the Europeans. The American arms industry will also benefit from the increased military spending.
With targeted operations in Iran and Venezuela, the unique striking power of the American military has been put on display. The message is clear: 1) Trump's threats should be taken seriously, and it is therefore wiser to make a deal with him. 2) Weaker allies of Russia and China are being humiliated one after another, which calls into question the value of their protection. 3) Conversely, one can buy military protection by becoming an ally of the USA. This also explains why the weakening of arch-enemy Iran has led Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar to sign huge investment and defense agreements with the USA.
The risks of Trump's policy
These successes, however, also fuel Trump's narcissism and appetite for risk. His foreign policy is taking on an increasingly imperialist tone (see Venezuela, Panama, Greenland), which actually runs counter to the isolationist strand of the MAGA movement.
There is also the danger that the bow is being drawn too tight with allies and neutral countries alike (see the National Security Strategy), to the point where one can no longer really speak of allies. The strategy of extortion has not paid off so far, for example with India or with Canada. Ultimately, Trump's constant attempts at coercion call America's reliability into question. That is the flip side of Trump's unpredictability.
At home, persistent inflation is one of the biggest problems for Trump's tariff policy. Reindustrialization and the reorganization of supply chains take time, and ordinary citizens often lack the patience or understanding for that. His statement that "children should only have two dolls instead of thirty" is evidence of a billionaire's social tone-deafness.
The expanded controls carried out by the immigration agency ICE will increasingly affect people many Americans recognize from their own neighborhood — people who have lived peacefully in the country for a long time and who dutifully pay their taxes. Even though the tougher stance against illegal criminals is quite popular, locking up friendly neighbors will very quickly come to be seen as unnecessary, inhumane, and vindictive. Finally, in many deals the president mixes the interests of his country with those of his own organization.
The conflicts of interest and the suspicion of corruption are troubling. The gilded gifts, the demolition of the East Wing of the White House to build a grandiose ballroom — these create the impression of an aloof monarch.
Trump is playing with fire — will there be an explosion?
The USA emerges from the first year of the new Trump administration economically and geopolitically strengthened. The fact that these successes were achieved by turning diplomatic conventions upside down demonstrates a certain insight into geopolitical power dynamics.
The question that will soon arise is whether these successes will temper his ambitions, or rather spur him on to escalate the spiral even further. In the latter case, playing with fire will, sooner or later, lead to a big bang.
* The author is mayor of the municipality of Weiswampach and lived and worked in the USA from 2007 to 2018.